How The Bizarre Campaign Redefined the Traditional Coach of the Year Blueprint.
Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.
In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.
Yet the latest field is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending together. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.
Here is how the ideal ballot could look.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.
Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.
The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.
During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a normal season!
Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.
4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record
Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.
Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.
After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.
The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3
Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.
Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.
Still